Self-Confidence and Timing of Entry

This paper analyzes the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare. To do that the paper uses an endogenous timing model where (i) players have private information about costs and (ii) one player is overconfident and the other is rational. The paper shows that for moderate levels of self-confidence there is a unique cost-dependent equilibrium where the overconfident player has a higher ex-ante probability of entering the market before the rational player. In this equilibrium self-confidence reduces the profits of the rational player but can increase the profits of the overconfident player provided that cost asymmetries are small. Finally, we show that overconfidence reduces welfare, except when cost asymmetries are very small.endogenous timing; entry; overconfidence

GME versus OLS - Which is the best to estimate utility functions?

This paper estimates von Neumann andMorgenstern utility functions comparing the generalized maximum entropy (GME) with OLS, using data obtained by utility elicitation methods. Thus, it provides a comparison of the performance of the two estimators in a real data small sample setup. The results confirm the ones obtained for small samples through Monte Carlo simulations. The difference between the two estimators is small and it decreases as the width of the parameter support vector increases. Moreover the GME estimator is more precise than the OLS one. Overall the results suggest that GME is an interesting alternative to OLS in the estimation of utility functions when data is generated by utility elicitation methods.Generalized maximum entropy; Maximum entropy principle; von Neumann and Morgenstern utility; Utility elicitation.

InqExpert: An application for textual treatment of the Royal Inquiries of 1258

Neste artigo, vamos apresentar a construção de uma aplicação de software particularmente vocacionada para a análise quantitativa do texto das Inquirições de 1258, designada InqExpert, que permite obter, de forma rápida e rigorosa, informação acerca de vários domínios de estudo (e.g. metrologia). Este texto representa na historiografia portuguesa um paradoxo: investigadores que muitas vezes se queixam de falta de fontes recuam perante tal extensão de informação. Para ajudar a resolver este paradoxo o InqExpert foi desenvolvido à medida das necessidades dos historiadores, mas também foi preparado para suportar evoluções no sentido de acomodar técnicas do TextMining.In this paper, we present the construction of a software application, particularly tailored for the quantitative analysis of Royal Inquiries of 1258, named InqExpert, which enables us to look for information, in several domains (e.g. metrology), over all its corpus in a fast and rigorous way. This corpus represents in itself a paradox in the Portuguese historiography: researchers that usually complaint about the lack of sources then move backwards in presence of a huge amount of information. To help them in solving this paradox, the InqExpert was developed to fit the usual historian needs but also to support releases that integrate several advanced techniques in Text Mining.peerreviewe

O emprego de meios cinotécnicos da GNR em incidentes tático-policiais

A presente dissertação analisa a utilização de binómios de intervenção tática em Incidentes Tático-Policiais. Pelo que, foi realizado um estudo de caso considerando a cooperação e envolvimento operacional dos binómios de intervenção tática com Grupo de Intervenção de Operações Especiais, procurando perceber-se como poderão ser potenciados os meios cinotécnicos em situação de Incidente Tático-Policial. Os binómios de intervenção tática surgiram em Portugal no início do século XXI e visavam ser empenhados em situações de elevado risco para a força tática, podendo salvaguardar a vida dos militares constituintes dessa força ao serem os primeiros a entrar em contacto com o adversário. Neste sentido, os binómios de intervenção tática têm vindo a ser treinados e preparados de acordo com as necessidades e intenções institucionais, sendo atualmente cada vez mais reconhecidas as potencialidades e vantagens do seu emprego operacional. Com esta investigação pretende-se compreender as motivações que levaram ao emprego dos meios cinotécnicos em Incidentes Tático-Policiais, assim como as potencialidades e vulnerabilidades evidenciadas nesse emprego, procurando perceber de que forma pode ser melhorado o desempenho do canídeo. Para o desenvolvimento deste trabalho foi privilegiado o método hipotético-dedutivo, uma vez que, partindo de problemas associados à temática foram elaboradas soluções provisórias e por fim confrontadas com os dados obtidos, com vista à eliminação do problema. Assim, resultou que os cães são bastante úteis quando empenhados, sendo que o seu emprego por vezes pode ser fundamental para a resolução do incidente. Por outro lado, ao nível dos militares que constituem as duas subunidades, considera-se que entre estes deva existir uma boa relação, sendo este um fator preponderante para o sucesso conjunto. Por fim, verifica-se que os militares não são dotados da mesma formação e equipamento, ainda que empregues nos mesmos ambientes operacionais. Conclui-se que os meios cinotécnicos podem ser úteis para a salvaguarda da vida dos militares da força tática, quando empregues de forma treinada e adequada.Ainda assim, podem potenciar-se os meios cinotécnicos com uma aproximação ou integração física da companhia de intervenção cinotécnica nas instalações da subunidade tática, pois permitiria uma maior colaboração e discussão de objetivos, bem como de condutas a adotar pelos binómios de intervenção tática. Permitiria ainda uma maior concretização de treino entre as subunidades e a criação de laços de confiança entre os militares, que se entende ser preponderante para o empenhamento conjunto.The context of the current dissertation is the using of the canine tactical intervention elements in Tactical-Police Incidents. According to this, a case study was also performed considering the cooperation and involvement between the canine tactical intervention elements and the special operations intervention group, where we study how the canine tactical intervention elements can be potentiated in Tactical-Police Incidents. The canine tactical intervention elements were created in Portugal in the beginning of the XXI century and they were meant to be used in high risk situations for the tactical force, allowing to safeguard the other elements as they are the first elements to engage with the opponent in the operation theatre. In this sense, the elements of canine tactical intervention have being trained and prepared to face the necessities and institutional intentions, and became increasingly recognized due to the associated advantages and potentialities of their employment. Thus, this work describes and explains the factors that could potentiate the employment of police canine means in Tactical-Police Incidents. Essentially, it is meant to understand the motivations, potentialities and vulnerabilities of the system as it is performed. Finally, we also explore how the dog performance can be increased. Through the development of the current work the hypothetic-deductive method was privileged as from the problem formulation, temporary solutions were designed and lastly compared against the obtained data in line with the problem elimination. The results shown that well trained dogs are undoubtedly useful and their employment can be remarkable for incident resolution. On the other side, a well-established relationship between the special operations elements and the elements of the canine tactical intervention is considered as a key to success of the entity. In the end we still verified that military forces do not have the same equipment and background training, even though they operate in the same operational environments. We conclude that canine teams are useful for the life safeguard of the elements of the tactical force elements in situations where the team fulfills the training and adequate usageparameters. The canine tactical intervention elements can be potentiated if an approach or physical integration is observed between the intervention company and the tactical subunit, allowing a better collaboration and objective discussion of the police canine team guidelines aside with a great accomplishment of the training between subunits and confidence enhancement between the elements that culminates in a better employment as a team factor

Event-related brain potentials in the study of inhibition: cognitive control, source localization and age-related modulations

In the previous 15 years, a variety of experimental paradigms and methods have been employed to study inhibition. In the current review, we analyze studies that have used the high temporal resolution of the event-related potential (ERP) technique to identify the temporal course of inhibition to understand the various processes that contribute to inhibition. ERP studies with a focus on normal aging are specifically analyzed because they contribute to a deeper understanding of inhibition. Three time windows are proposed to organize the ERP data collected using inhibition paradigms: the 200 ms period following stimulus onset; the period between 200 and 400 ms after stimulus onset; and the period between 400 and 800 ms after stimulus onset. In the first 200 ms, ERP inhibition research has primarily focused on N1 and P1 as the ERP components associated with inhibition. The inhibitory processing in the second time window has been associated with the N2 and P3 ERP components. Finally, in the third time window, inhibition has primarily been associated with the N400 and N450 ERP components. Source localization studies are analyzed to examine the association between the inhibition processes that are indexed by the ERP components and their functional brain areas. Inhibition can be organized in a complex functional structure that is not constrained to a specific time point but, rather, extends its activity through different time windows. This review characterizes inhibition as a set of processes rather than a unitary process

Coexistence of orbital and CE-AFM orders in colossal magnetoresistance manganites:a symmetry perspective

The complex interplay between order parameters of different nature that dominates the physics of co- lossal magnetoresistance manganites is analysed from a symmetry based perspective.Phenomenological energies are given for the different competing phases.It is shown that the general trends observed in different systems,such as the mutual exclusion of orbital order and A-AFM order and the related sta- bilization of theCE-AFM order,stem to large extend from the symmetry of the parameters involved.The possible stabilization of complex phases where charge and orbital order coexist with magnetic and ferroelectric states is also anticipated.This work was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) in the frame work of the Strategic Projects of CFUM [PEst-C/FIS/UI0607/2013 (F-COMP-01-0124-FEDER022711)]

Human attitudes towards herpetofauna: How preferences, fear and belefs can influence the conservation of reptiles and amphibians

A forma como o Homem valoriza a biodiversidade afecta a sua relação com esta. Os répteis e os anfíbios são dos animais mais negativamente valorizados pelo Homem, devido a percepções erradas, argu mentos estéticos e pela presença de mitos e crendices. Nesta dissertação tenta-se demonstrar como estas percepções, argumentos estéticos e mitos podem conduzir a atitudes de perseguição e de pouco apoio à sua conservação destes animais. Estas interacções entre Homem e herpetofauna variam entre diferentes características sócio-demográficas e são mais intensas em relação aos répteis do que aos anfíbios. Os répteis são no geral mais perseguidos pelo Homem, sendo mais capturados e mortos que os anfíbios, principalmente por medo e ideias erradas. Através de uma experiência de educação ambiental pode-se antever que um programa de educação ambiental bem estruturado e de grande aplicação pode melhor a compreensão e relações humanas com estes animais. - ABSTRACT: The way the human values the biodiversity affects their relationship with this. The reptiles and amphibians are some of the more negatively valued animals by man, due to wrong perceptions, aesthetic arguments and the presence of myths and superstitions. This thesis attempts to demonstrate how these misperceptions, aesthetic arguments and myths can lead to persecution and little support for the conservation of these animals. These interactions between men and herpetofauna vary between different socio-demographic characteristics and are more intense in relation to reptiles than to amphibians. The reptiles are in general most persecuted by man, being captured and killed more than amphibians, mainly by fear and misconceptions. Through a small experience of environmental education held during the thesis, it can be anticipated that a structured and widely applied program of environmental education and can better the understanding and human relationships with these animals

The impact of foreign owership and board membership on the performance of domestic banks: evidence from Portugal

This study examines the effect of foreign ownership and board membership on the performance of domestic banks in Portugal, employing ordinary least-square and two-stage least-square regression analysis. The findings reveal a negative relationship between foreign ownership and bank costs. Foreign ownership implies a reduction in total costs of 4.1% while operating costs decline 1.1%. For each unit of foreign equity total costs go down 11.7% and operational costs fall 3.4%. Evidence also indicates that foreign board members introduce improvements in organizational structure and operational efficiency, according to the significant and negative relationship with operating costs. Furthermore, our results suggest that domestic banks’ dependence on traditional banking areas of business is reduced due to foreign board members’ experienced insights and understanding of markets and competition beyond the local environment. Foreign board membership reduces the interest margin on average 0.7% and increases the non-interest margin 0.4%. A 1% increase in the number of foreign board members reduces the net interest margin by 2.9%. A CEO with foreign nationality lowers the interest margin by 6.0%. Additionally, foreign directors with major influence on the board seem to be more willing to address the deterioration of asset quality by promoting the adoption of more prudent practices in lending and management of credit risk, which leads to higher levels of provisions for credit losses. These findings indicate that foreign ownership and board membership can play an important role in importing sophisticated managerial practices that can improve the performance of domestic banks. Indeed, the adoption of a global corporate governance system can improve bank performance, especially in countries in their early stages of financial development.A presente tese analisa a influência que os accionistas e administradores estrangeiros exercem na performance dos bancos domésticos em Portugal, utilizando para o efeito os métodos OLS (Ordinary Least-Square) e 2SLS (Two-Stage Least-Square). Os resultados revelam uma relação negativa entre os accionistas estrangeiros e os custos dos bancos domésticos, traduzindo-se a presença daqueles numa redução dos custos totais e dos custos operacionais de, respectivamente, 4.1% e 1.1%. O estudo realizado sugere igualmente que a existência de membros estrangeiros nos conselhos de administração introduz melhorias na estrutura organizacional e na eficiência operacional dos bancos domésticos (tendo em conta a relação significativa e negativa com os custos operacionais) e reduz a dependência destes em relação às actividades bancárias tradicionais, na medida em que os administradores estrangeiros possuem conhecimentos que vão para além do mercado e da concorrência local na área de negócio em causa (as regressões evidenciam que a presença dos referidos administradores provoca uma diminuição da margem financeira de 0.7% e um aumento da margem não financeira de 0.4%). Por outro lado, quando os membros com maior peso no conselho de administração (presidente e vice-presidentes) são estrangeiros parece existir uma maior disposição para lidar com o problema da deterioração da qualidade dos activos, a qual se concretiza na adopção de práticas mais prudentes na concessão de empréstimos e na gestão do risco de crédito, resultando tal, por sua vez, em níveis de provisionamento mais elevados. Por conseguinte, a análise empírica efectuada indica que os accionistas e administradores estrangeiros podem desempenhar um papel importante na “importação” de práticas de gestão mais sofisticadas, as quais tendem a melhorar a performance dos bancos domésticos

The impact of negative interest rates on a firm’s financing costs

In this project we want to find out to what extent the adoption of negative interest rates (specifically the Deposit Facility Rate) by the European Central Bank has affected the financing costs of a non-financial firm, providing a real example. We compute two different interest rates – one contracted with the bank (theoretical) and one resulting from the balance sheet and income statement (practical), the former representing what the firm expects to pay over the loan, and the latter encompassing the indirect costs of borrowing – and compare them between periods. We set the break between periods on June 2014, when the European Central Bank cut its Deposit Facility Rate into negative grounds, and find that the contracted interest rate dropped, and the overall interest rate increased, with the increase being caused not only by an increase in risk exposure, but also by a generalized increase in taxes, commissions and fees.Queremos com este projeto descobrir qual o impacto da política de taxas de juro negativas impostas pelo Banco Central Europeu (nomeadamente a taxa de Facilidade Permanente de Depósito) sobre os custos de financiamento numa empresa não financeira. Calculámos duas taxas de juro diferentes – a contratada ao banco (teórica), e uma resultante do balanço e demonstração de resultados (prática), a primeira representando o que a empresa espera pagar sobre o empréstimo, e a segunda que engloba os custos indiretos do financiamento – e comparámo-las entre períodos. A divisão entre períodos é feita em Junho de 2014, altura em que o Banco Central Europeu baixou a sua taxa de Facilidade Permanente de Depósito para valores negativos, concluímos que a taxa contratada desceu, e a taxa prática subiu, sendo esta subida causada não só pelo aumento da exposição ao risco, mas também pelo aumento generalizado de impostos, taxas e comissões

Exploração do conceito “jogo e cultura” no campo das artes plásticas

Geograficamente a região que compreende as províncias de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (Portugal) e de Zamora (Espanha) comunga de rituais ancestrais comuns e únicos, apesar das fronteiras políticas, diluída nos dias de hoje em consequência da integração na Comunidade Europeia. Pretendemos abordar os conceitos já explorados de “Sagrado” e “Profano”, no presente caso parecem não ser antagónicos, senão interdependentes, nas pequenas comunidades rurais portuguesas e espanholas. O conceito foi explorado e descrito através de dois óleos sobre tela, da autoria de Luís Canotilho, tendo como base exploratória as “Festas de Inverno em Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro” e as “Mascaradas de Invierno de Zamora” e a manifestação religiosa que constitui a romaria católica da “Senhora do Nazo”, perto da cidade de Miranda do Douro. Geographically the region comprising the provinces of Tras-os-Montes and Alto Douro (Portugal) and Zamora (Spain) shares of common ancestral rituals and unique, despite the political boundaries, diluted nowadays as a result of integration into the European Community. We intend to address the concepts already explored "Sacred" and "Profane" in this case seem to be antagonistic, but interdependent, small rural communities in Portuguese and Spanish. The concept was explored and described through two oils on canvas, designed by Luis Canotilho, based on the exploratory "Winter Festivals in Tras-os-Montes and Alto Douro" and "Cloaked Invierno Zamora" and religious expression which is a Catholic pilgrimage of "Lady of Nazo", near the town of Miranda do Douro